paul

I'm Not Sure I Believe In Dollar Cost Averaging

Considering that the name of this site is invest every month, I suppose part of the argument being made by the site owner is that we should engage in dollar cost averaging.  However, I'm not sure I believe in dollar cost averaging.

 

I have been told many times by my financial advisor that I shoud invest on a weekly or monthly time table so that my investments are spread out.  This means that I will be buying more stocks when prices are low and fewer stocks when prices are high.  However, I'm still buying the same dollar amount of stocks.

 

Doesn't it make more sense to hold onto my money and buy on the dips and hold back on the highs?  I know this is difficult to do becasue we never know when the market is going up or going down, but sometimes it is pretty obvious.

 

For example, right now the market is down a few percentage points from the high just a couple of months ago.  It has been a pretty quick decline because of some bad economic news.  However, the overall economy is getting better. 

 

I see our current time period as a great buying opportunity.  Of course, it isn't a great buying time period like it was a couple years ago when the market went down into the 6,000's, but I don't know if we will ever see that type of opportunity again.

 

The depressed market of a couple years ago is the perfect example.  I'm glad I continued to invest every month while the market was going down and back up again, but I am really glad that I made a large investment at about 7,200.  Now that the market is back up to around 12,000, my investment from a couple years ago (or was it last year?) is doing really well.

 

I know that I will continue to invest on a normal schedule.  I do so because I want to invest for my retirement and also because it allows me to invest without really having to think about it.  However, I really do believe that I watch the markets enough to know when we are in dips.  I may be buying stocks at good prices with my usual purchase, but I want to take advantage of the low prices. 

 

When I see a dip, I will continue to scrounge up more money to invest even though the theory of dollar cost averaging tells me to keep investing the same amounton a normal schedule.  My only question now is how often do I want o try to time the market.  Do I only do it on the large and very noticeable dips or do I try to start doing this on a shorter time frame.

Views: 35

Tags: buying stocks at good prices, dollar cost averaging, take advantage of low prices

Nathan Andover Comment by Nathan Andover on June 16, 2011 at 2:31pm
The dollar cost averaging theory is a simple mathematical formula that is difficult to refute.  However, I agree with you that there are times wehn you can tell we are in a dip or are going a little to high too quickly.  How about this, put a set amountof money into an automatic investment program and then try to time the dips and highs with another set of investment money.  The key is to track your success.  We all remember the times we did well, but what about the other times?  Kinda like a gambler remembering the time he won $100 without mentioning that he had lost $20 per day for a month.
James Scott Comment by James Scott on June 23, 2011 at 3:08pm

Do you believe in it now?  I mean seriously, were you up to date on the release of oil from the strategic oil reserves, the lower than expected economic news today, the IMF & EU bailout agreement, etc...?  That is a lot of news to try to keep track of and try to time.  Especially when some of the news is impossible to predict.

 

Plus, are you trying to time the overall market with index or mutual funds or are you trying to time the stock prices of individual companies?  Either way, it is a very difficult thing to do and some of the best investors in the world have a very low percentage success rate when it comes to timing the market.

paul Comment by paul on July 1, 2011 at 2:07pm

I wrote this post as the market was heading down below 12,000.  I saw this as a sell-off and I stopped my weekly contributions.  At the end of last week I thought we had hit a bottom (and I enjoyed the news from Greece that a bailout was in place) so I put a lump sum into the market.  This week, the market has been hot with most indexes up about 5%.

 

I'm not saying I can time the market like this every time, but sometimes it just seems obvious. 

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